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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 6 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 2W 1D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamia, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Lamia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 32% versus Levadiakos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 36% | Levadiakos 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.97 xG and Levadiakos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.801 / defence 1.102 | Levadiakos attack 0.929 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Lamia games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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