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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kallithea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.15 xG and Kallithea 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kallithea outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Kallithea attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 41% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 29%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 37%, Kallithea 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kallithea's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamia 0.59 PPG, Kallithea 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights