Lamia 0-2 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Kallithea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Kallithea at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kallithea — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kallithea have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Lamia) versus 1.00 (Kallithea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamia, 1 for Kallithea and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Kallithea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 33% versus Kallithea 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 37% | Kallithea 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.15 xG and Kallithea 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.768 / defence 1.119 | Kallithea attack 0.757 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. Lamia's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Lamia games / 26 Kallithea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 41% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 29%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Kallithea 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Kallithea 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 41% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Lamia 1.15 / Kallithea 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.768 / def 1.119 | Kallithea attack 0.757 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Lamia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Kallithea xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Kallithea kick off?
Lamia vs Kallithea kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Kallithea?
Lamia 0 - 2 Kallithea.
Where is Lamia vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Kallithea part of?
Lamia vs Kallithea is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 41% chance of winning, Kallithea a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lamia and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Kallithea?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Kallithea 1W.
What form are Lamia and Kallithea in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Kallithea (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.77) and Kallithea's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.35
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.08
0.93
Kallithea xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lamia and 0.93 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 3W 7D 17L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kallithea's form line: 4W 10D 13L from 27 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.59 PPG, Kallithea on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
On the road, Kallithea have gone 1W 5D 7L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.93 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Kallithea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 3W 7D 17L in their last 27 games (0.59 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 4W 10D 13L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Kallithea away?
Lamia's home record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.69 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kallithea go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Kallithea specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
3
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Kallithea?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, Kallithea have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Kallithea?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 31%, Kallithea 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lamia) and 38% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 62% of games; Kallithea in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Lamia's recent matches and 46% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lamia's recent games and 38% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Kallithea tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kallithea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.15 xG and Kallithea 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kallithea outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Kallithea attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 41% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 29%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 37%, Kallithea 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kallithea's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.59 PPG, Kallithea 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.