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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 60%, Aris Thessalonikis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights