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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Match Analysis

Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Lamia — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Aris Thessalonikis have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Lamia's 2 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Lamia in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.639 / defence 1.185 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.104. Lamia's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Lamia games / 45 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.22. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 70%.

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