Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Aris Thessalonikis have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Lamia's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.639 / defence 1.185 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.104. Lamia's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Lamia games / 45 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.22. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 0.93 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.639 / def 1.185 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 27% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (9 meetings): Lamia 2W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 5W.
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.52
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lamia and 1.29 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 10W 14D 31L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 13L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 14D 31L in their last 55 games (0.80 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.89 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Lamia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamia) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 37%; Lamia have failed to score in 37% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lamia's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 27% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 45%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 60%, Aris Thessalonikis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.