Lamia 2-4 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Match Analysis

Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 9). Kick-off is Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Lamia — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lamia have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lamia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Lamia 1–3 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Aris Thessalonikis 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.19 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.915 / defence 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.919 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Aris Thessalonikis bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52.

Result probabilities: Lamia 30% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.29 | Draw 3.19 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lamia 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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