Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 8 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 0D 3L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Lamia, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 5–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 48% versus Lamia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Lamia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.304 / defence 0.837 | Lamia attack 1.067 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Lamia 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.31 / Lamia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.304 / def 0.837 | Lamia attack 1.067 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lamia xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 6W | Draws 0 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.30x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.50
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.53
1.22
Lamia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
10%
10.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
2%
58.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.22 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 41W 14D 11L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 14W 22D 30L from 66 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.24 PPG from 33 outings (23W 5D 5L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 14D 15L from 33 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.95 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 14D 11L in their last 66 games (2.08 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 22D 30L in their last 66 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Lamia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.24 PPG; Lamia away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Lamia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Lamia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, Lamia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 54% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lamia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 54% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 54% of Lamia's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 4-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.22 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Lamia attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 17%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 59%, Lamia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.55 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.