Kifisia 1-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kifisia face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kifisia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kifisia have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kifisia at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAOK stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, PAOK have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Kifisia. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Kifisia 0–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PAOK have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
PAOK in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 68% versus PAOK 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 54% | PAOK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 0.93 xG and PAOK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.779 / defence 1.058 | PAOK attack 1.190 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.093. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Kifisia's last 22 games and PAOK's last 48.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 25% | Draw 28% | PAOK 47%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.99 | Draw 3.58 | PAOK 2.13. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kifisia 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 25% | Draw 28% | PAOK 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kifisia 0.93 / PAOK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.779 / def 1.058 | PAOK attack 1.190 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: PAOK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
PAOK xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kifisia vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Kifisia vs PAOK kick off?
Kifisia vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs PAOK?
Kifisia 1 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Kifisia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs PAOK part of?
Kifisia vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 25% chance of winning, PAOK a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kifisia and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kifisia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.78x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kifisia's last 22 games and PAOK's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
25%
3.99
28%
3.58
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.30
1.38
PAOK xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kifisia vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kifisia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.38 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Kifisia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 5W 9D 8L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 15W 5D 2L from 22 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kifisia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAOK in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Kifisia (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kifisia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Kifisia vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Kifisia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while PAOK have gone 15W 5D 2L in their last 22 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.00 PPG; PAOK away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Kifisia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kifisia have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PAOK in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 4 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2023, when PAOK won Kifisia 0-6 PAOK.
Kifisia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kifisia
0
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Kifisia vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and PAOK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Kifisia have won 0, PAOK have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2026: Kifisia 1-4 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 50%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Kifisia) and 60% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 40%; Kifisia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kifisia vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kifisia and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kifisia's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kifisia and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Kifisia's recent games and 60% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Kifisia's recent matches and 90% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Kifisia 1-4 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 0.93 xG and PAOK 1.38 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 22/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 25% | Draw 28% | PAOK 47%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 54%, PAOK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Kifisia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.