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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kifisia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Kifisia 1-4 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 0.93 xG and PAOK 1.38 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 22/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 25% | Draw 28% | PAOK 47%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 54%, PAOK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Kifisia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights