Kifisia 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kifisia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos plays host to Kifisia versus OFI in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Kifisia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
OFI have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Kifisia, 1.00 for OFI — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kifisia 1W, OFI 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Kifisia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 62% versus OFI 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 69% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 2.06 xG and OFI 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.945 / defence 1.322 | OFI attack 0.686 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Kifisia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kifisia (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 50% | OFI 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Kifisia 2.06 / OFI 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.945 / def 1.322 | OFI attack 0.686 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
OFI xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs OFI kick off?
Kifisia vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Kifisia 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Kifisia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos.
What competition is Kifisia vs OFI part of?
Kifisia vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 55% chance of winning, OFI a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kifisia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): Kifisia 1W | Draws 1 | OFI 0W.
What form are Kifisia and OFI in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. OFI (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.94x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.69x) against Kifisia's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.05
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.30
1.23
OFI xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
38.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kifisia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.23 for OFI, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kifisia come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 9D 13L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (5W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Kifisia against 0.96 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kifisia's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (0W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and OFI in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 9D 13L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or OFI away?
Kifisia's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.08 PPG; OFI away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kifisia
3
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
From 5 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 2, OFI have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Kifisia 2-2 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and OFI?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 62%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Kifisia and 69% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 31% of games; OFI in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kifisia's matches and 69% of OFI's.
Do Kifisia and OFI tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, OFI in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos, Relegation Round - 1, as Kifisia and OFI drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 2.06 xG and OFI 1.23 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 2.1 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against OFI attack 0.69 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 55% | Draw 25% | OFI 21%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 69%, OFI 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 0.81 PPG, OFI 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.