Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Asteras Tripolis hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Volos NFC, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The historical record gives Asteras Tripolis a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 44% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 44% | Volos NFC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.97 xG and Volos NFC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / defence 1.271 | Volos NFC attack 0.603 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. Data: 52 Asteras Tripolis games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 18%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Volos NFC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.97 / Volos NFC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.044 / def 1.271 | Volos NFC attack 0.603 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Volos NFC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 57% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
Record (5 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 3W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.95
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.02
1.04
Volos NFC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.04 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 20D 25L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 14W 13D 32L from 59 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.05 PPG, Volos NFC on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (10W 13D 7L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 9D 15L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.93 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 20D 25L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 14W 13D 32L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Volos NFC away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.43 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 43%, Volos NFC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Asteras Tripolis) and 53% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 33% of games; Volos NFC in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 33% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 53% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Asteras Tripolis 0-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.97 xG and Volos NFC 1.04 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Volos NFC outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Volos NFC attack 0.60 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 18%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 44%, Volos NFC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.05 PPG, Volos NFC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.