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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kifisia edge out Larisa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Larisa 3-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kifisia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Larisa attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 40% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 51%, Larisa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.09 PPG, Larisa 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights