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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kifisia and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.61 xG and Larisa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Larisa attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 52% | Draw 25% | Larisa 23%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 60%, Larisa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights