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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Kifisia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Kifisia 0-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.16 xG and Atromitos 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kifisia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Atromitos attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 41%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 61%, Atromitos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Atromitos's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.06 PPG, Atromitos 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights