Kallithea 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 December 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kallithea's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 0W 3D 4L from 7 Super League 1 appearances (0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kallithea, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kallithea half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 64% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.834 / defence 1.549 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.131 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.238. Data: 14 Kallithea games / 40 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 14% | Draw 19% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 7.14 | Draw 5.26 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 71% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Monday 16 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 14% | Draw 19% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Kallithea 0.85 / Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.834 / def 1.549 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.131 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 16 December 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Kallithea 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 14% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 67% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Kallithea 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kallithea's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.13x) against Kallithea's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
14%
7.39
19%
5.26
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Kallithea xG
Total xG
3.02
2.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
7.39
14%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
11%
8.76
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
2%
64.68
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kallithea and 2.17 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kallithea come into this having played 14 games, going 0W 8D 6L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Kallithea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kallithea's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kallithea are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.86 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kallithea have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 8D 6L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 3D 2L in their last 14 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.43 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Kallithea or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kallithea
1
Draws
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 2 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 16 December 2024, when Kallithea 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 71%, Olympiakos Piraeus 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kallithea) and 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%; Kallithea have failed to score in 29% of games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Kallithea's recent matches and 29% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kallithea vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kallithea's matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.83 / defence 1.55 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 14% | Draw 19% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kallithea (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.