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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Kallithea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.57 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Lamia attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 51% | Draw 25% | Lamia 24%, with Kallithea to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 46%, Lamia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.94 PPG, Lamia 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights