🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Kallithea (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kallithea face Lamia.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 10 as Kallithea welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kallithea have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Kallithea have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Lamia away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Kallithea are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kallithea, 0 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Kallithea winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Kallithea in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Lamia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 54% versus Lamia 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 46% | Lamia 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.57 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.904 / defence 1.265 | Lamia attack 0.717 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Kallithea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Kallithea games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kallithea 51% | Draw 25% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Lamia 4.17. Kallithea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kallithea at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kallithea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 60% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights