Kallithea 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kallithea (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kallithea face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 10 as Kallithea welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kallithea have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Kallithea have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lamia away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kallithea are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kallithea, 0 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Kallithea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 54% versus Lamia 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 46% | Lamia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.57 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.904 / defence 1.265 | Lamia attack 0.717 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Kallithea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Kallithea games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 51% | Draw 25% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Lamia 4.17. Kallithea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kallithea at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kallithea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 60% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 51% | Draw 25% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Kallithea 1.57 / Lamia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.904 / def 1.265 | Lamia attack 0.717 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Kallithea (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lamia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Lamia kick off?
Kallithea vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Lamia?
Kallithea 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Kallithea vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Lamia part of?
Kallithea vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 51% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kallithea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kallithea and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Kallithea 2W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Kallithea and Lamia in?
Kallithea (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kallithea's attack rating (0.90) and Lamia's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Kallithea's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kallithea Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.95
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.56
0.99
Lamia xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kallithea and 0.99 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kallithea come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 12D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.57 PPG from 35 outings (4W 8D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kallithea on 0.94 PPG, Lamia on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kallithea's home form reads 3W 7D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (1W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kallithea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kallithea are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.60 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Lamia in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 8D 23L in their last 35 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Lamia away?
Kallithea's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.94 PPG; Lamia away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kallithea and Lamia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kallithea have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kallithea's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kallithea
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Lamia?
From 4 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 3, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Kallithea 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Lamia?
Kallithea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 65%, Lamia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kallithea) and 35% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Kallithea have failed to score in 29% of games; Lamia in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Kallithea's recent matches and 29% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kallithea vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kallithea's recent games and 35% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Lamia tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lamia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kallithea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.57 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Lamia attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 51% | Draw 25% | Lamia 24%, with Kallithea to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 46%, Lamia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.94 PPG, Lamia 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.