Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium to take on Kalamata. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalamata — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalamata's home record at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.08 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.22), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kalamata, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 0–5 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalamata in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalamata 67% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalamata 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.31 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 1.055 / defence 1.448 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.297 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Kalamata games / 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 25% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Kalamata 80% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 25% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Kalamata 1.31 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 1.055 / def 1.448 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.297 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 25% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Kalamata 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Kalamata (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kalamata's attack rating (1.05) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
25%
3.98
25%
3.99
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Kalamata xG
Total xG
3.21
1.90
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
4%
26.54
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.90 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalamata come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.44 PPG from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Kalamata — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kalamata's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalamata are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.67 scored and 0.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 22%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalamata at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalamata at home: 1.40 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Kalamata or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Kalamata
0
Draws
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 1 meetings on record, Kalamata have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 5-0 Kalamata.
Who has won more matches between Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalamata 80%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kalamata) and 20% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kalamata's games and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalamata vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kalamata's recent games and 20% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.