Iraklis 1908 vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Iraklis 1908 vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees OFI travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Iraklis 1908 trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
OFI trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Iraklis 1908 40% versus OFI 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Iraklis 1908 20% | OFI 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 0.95 xG and OFI 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.680 / defence 1.272 | OFI attack 1.067 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Iraklis 1908's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Iraklis 1908 games / 30 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 24% | Draw 37% | OFI 39%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | OFI 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Iraklis 1908 40% | OFI 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 24% | Draw 37% | OFI 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Iraklis 1908 0.95 / OFI 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.680 / def 1.272 | OFI attack 1.067 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: OFI (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs OFI kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 24% chance of winning, OFI a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Iraklis 1908's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
24%
4.09
37%
2.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.20
1.24
OFI xG
4.09
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.20
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.24 for OFI, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Iraklis 1908's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 1L across 5 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Iraklis 1908 heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while OFI have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Iraklis 1908 or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Iraklis 1908 have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, OFI in 60%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Iraklis 1908 40%, OFI 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Iraklis 1908 and 40% for OFI.
On the defensive side: OFI in 60%; Iraklis 1908 have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 40% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 40% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and OFI tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.