Iraklis 1908 vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Iraklis 1908 vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees OFI travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Iraklis 1908's home record at Kaftanzoglio Stadium: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 1.12 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.78), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Iraklis 1908 trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
OFI trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Iraklis 1908 56% versus OFI 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Iraklis 1908 33% | OFI 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.36 xG and OFI 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.817 / defence 1.303 | OFI attack 1.094 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Data: 9 Iraklis 1908 games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 28% | OFI 38%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Iraklis 1908 50% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 28% | OFI 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.36 / OFI 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.817 / def 1.303 | OFI attack 1.094 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
OFI xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs OFI kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 34% chance of winning, OFI a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Iraklis 1908's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.51
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.44
OFI xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.44 for OFI, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Iraklis 1908's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Iraklis 1908 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 3L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Iraklis 1908 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Iraklis 1908 have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.56 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Iraklis 1908 at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Iraklis 1908 at home: 1.00 PPG; OFI away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Iraklis 1908 or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Iraklis 1908 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, OFI in 44%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
OFI see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Iraklis 1908 50%, OFI 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Iraklis 1908) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 25% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and OFI tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, OFI in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.