Atromitos 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atromitos have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atromitos's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Atromitos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
PAS Giannina's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAS Giannina's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Atromitos, 0.60 for PAS Giannina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Atromitos edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Atromitos 1–1 PAS Giannina — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus PAS Giannina 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 36% | PAS Giannina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.17 xG and PAS Giannina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.824 / defence 0.920 | PAS Giannina attack 0.970 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.999. Data: built from Atromitos's last 52 games and PAS Giannina's last 52.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.62 | Draw 2.64 | PAS Giannina 4.18. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 20% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Atromitos 1.17 / PAS Giannina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.824 / def 0.920 | PAS Giannina attack 0.970 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
PAS Giannina xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs PAS Giannina FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Atromitos 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 38% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atromitos and PAS Giannina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Atromitos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.97x) against Atromitos's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 52 games and PAS Giannina's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
38%
2.62
38%
2.64
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
PAS Giannina xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs PAS Giannina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.89 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 18D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.02 PPG from 61 outings (14W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Atromitos against 1.02 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Atromitos (Home) vs PAS Giannina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Atromitos vs PAS Giannina Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 16W 18D 27L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 14W 20D 27L in their last 61 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Atromitos's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.47 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs PAS Giannina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 43%, PAS Giannina 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Atromitos and 33% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; PAS Giannina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs PAS Giannina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and PAS Giannina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Atromitos's recent matches and 37% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and PAS Giannina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Atromitos's recent games and 33% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAS Giannina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Atromitos's recent matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 3, as Atromitos and PAS Giannina drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.17 xG and PAS Giannina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against PAS Giannina attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, PAS Giannina 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.08 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.