PAS Giannina 3-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 4 as PAS Giannina welcome Panetolikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 0.90 (Panetolikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Panetolikos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 45% versus Panetolikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 39% | Panetolikos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.28 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.808 / defence 1.032 | Panetolikos attack 1.011 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 0.999. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 PAS Giannina games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 38% | Draw 36% | Panetolikos 26%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Panetolikos 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 40% | Panetolikos 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 38% | Draw 36% | Panetolikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG PAS Giannina 1.28 / Panetolikos 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.808 / def 1.032 | Panetolikos attack 1.011 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.245 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Panetolikos xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina 3 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 38% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
Record (4 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
38%
2.64
36%
2.79
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.32
1.04
Panetolikos xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.04 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 14W 21D 27L from 62 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 30L across 62 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.02 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 10W 10D 10L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.97 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 21D 27L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 17W 15D 30L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panetolikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.33 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
4
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Panetolikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAS Giannina) and 57% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 30% of games; Panetolikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PAS Giannina's games and 60% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 57% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Panetolikos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Panetolikos 3-2 at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.28 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panetolikos outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Panetolikos attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 38% | Draw 36% | Panetolikos 26%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 39%, Panetolikos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.02 PPG, Panetolikos 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.