Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Peristeri Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Atromitos are significantly better at Peristeri Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 8 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Atromitos.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.17 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.938 / defence 1.024 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.299 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Atromitos games / 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.17 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.938 / def 1.024 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.299 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 31% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 8W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.94x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.31
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.34 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 12D 17L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.15 PPG from 41 outings (26W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.61 scored and 0.51 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.19 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Atromitos) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Atromitos's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.