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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Atromitos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.77 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 21% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 51%, Olympiakos Piraeus 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights