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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atromitos's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Peristeriou this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Atromitos.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Atromitos in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 51% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.77 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.810 / defence 1.018 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.154 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.158. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Atromitos games / 44 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Atromitos 21% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.

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