Atromitos vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Levadiakos travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Peristeri Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at Peristeri Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 0.90 PPG, Levadiakos 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Atromitos, 2 for Levadiakos and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 52% versus Levadiakos 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 55% | Levadiakos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.52 xG and Levadiakos 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.944 / defence 1.008 | Levadiakos attack 0.646 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.022. Data: 34 Atromitos games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 56% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 15%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 70% | Levadiakos 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 56% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Atromitos 1.52 / Levadiakos 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.944 / def 1.008 | Levadiakos attack 0.646 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Levadiakos xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Peristeri Stadium.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 56% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Atromitos 3W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.94) and Levadiakos's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
56%
1.77
29%
3.46
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.19
0.67
Levadiakos xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
3%
31.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.67 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 12W 13D 17L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 16L across 42 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.17 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.60 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.19 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, Levadiakos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Atromitos) and 57% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Atromitos's matches and 57% of Levadiakos's.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.