Atromitos vs Levadiakos Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Levadiakos travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atromitos — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atromitos's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Levadiakos have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 0.90 PPG, Levadiakos 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Atromitos, 2 for Levadiakos and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Atromitos 0–1 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 52% versus Levadiakos 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 55% | Levadiakos 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atromitos surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.45 xG and Levadiakos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.963 / defence 1.002 | Levadiakos attack 0.701 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Levadiakos's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Atromitos's last 35 games and Levadiakos's last 36.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 16%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.95 | Draw 3.02 | Levadiakos 6.38. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 70% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Atromitos 1.45 / Levadiakos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.963 / def 1.002 | Levadiakos attack 0.701 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Levadiakos xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Peristeri Stadium.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 51% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.96) and Levadiakos's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 35 games and Levadiakos's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
51%
1.95
33%
3.02
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.17
0.73
Levadiakos xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.73 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 12W 13D 17L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 16L across 42 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.17 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 6W 7D 8L from their last 21 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across their last 21 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.60 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.19 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, Levadiakos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Atromitos) and 57% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Levadiakos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Atromitos's matches and 57% of Levadiakos's.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Atromitos's recent matches and 76% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.