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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Levadiakos travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Atromitos — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Atromitos's home record at Peristeri Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 1.70 PPG, Levadiakos 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Atromitos, 2 for Levadiakos and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Levadiakos winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Atromitos in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 47% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | Levadiakos 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.43 xG and Levadiakos 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.960 / defence 1.030 | Levadiakos attack 1.023 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 28%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 60% | Levadiakos 30%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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