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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Larisa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Larisa 3-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 34% | Larisa 24%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 39%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atromitos's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Larisa's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Larisa 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights