Atromitos 3-2 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Larisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atromitos welcome Larisa to Peristeri Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 3). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Larisa stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Larisa have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atromitos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Atromitos, 0 for Larisa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Atromitos 0–0 Larisa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Larisa trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 43% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 39% | Larisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.909 / defence 1.077 | Larisa attack 0.728 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Larisa's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Atromitos's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 34% | Larisa 24%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.36 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 4.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and Larisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 30% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 34% | Larisa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Atromitos 1.20 / Larisa 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.909 / def 1.077 | Larisa attack 0.728 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Larisa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Larisa FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Larisa kick off?
Atromitos vs Larisa kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Larisa?
Atromitos 3 - 2 Larisa.
Where is Atromitos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Larisa part of?
Atromitos vs Larisa is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, Larisa a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atromitos and Larisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Atromitos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.91x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.36
34%
2.94
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.03
0.83
Larisa xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Larisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.83 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 10D 11L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.82 PPG from 28 outings (4W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.11 PPG, Larisa on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 2W 6D 6L across their last 14 home games, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 14 away games (2W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
Atromitos (Home) vs Larisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
❓ Atromitos vs Larisa Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 11D 13L in their last 28 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Larisa away?
Atromitos's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.86 PPG; Larisa away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Larisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Larisa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Larisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Atromitos
2
Draws
1
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Larisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Larisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 1, Larisa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Larisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Larisa 2-1 Atromitos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, Larisa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atromitos) and 43% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 36% of games; Larisa in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Larisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Larisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Larisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atromitos's recent games and 43% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Larisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Atromitos's recent matches and 71% of Larisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Larisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Larisa 3-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 34% | Larisa 24%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 39%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Larisa's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Larisa 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.