Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atromitos welcome Ionikos to Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off is Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atromitos at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Atromitos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ionikos stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ionikos away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Atromitos) versus 1.00 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Atromitos's 30% BTTS rate and Ionikos's 20% (from Atromitos's last 10 home games and Ionikos's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Atromitos, 3 for Ionikos and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2023, ended Atromitos 2–0 Ionikos — a Atromitos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus Ionikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 37% | Ionikos 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.32 xG and Ionikos 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.810 / defence 0.909 | Ionikos attack 0.706 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.997. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Ionikos's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Atromitos's last 52 games and Ionikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 50% | Draw 36% | Ionikos 14%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.01 | Draw 2.79 | Ionikos 6.90. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and Ionikos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 30% (last 10 home games) | Ionikos 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 50% | Draw 36% | Ionikos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Atromitos 1.32 / Ionikos 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.810 / def 0.909 | Ionikos attack 0.706 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Ionikos xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Ionikos FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Ionikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Atromitos 2 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Ionikos part of?
Atromitos vs Ionikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 50% chance of winning, Ionikos a 14% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Atromitos and Ionikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Atromitos vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 52 games and Ionikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
50%
2.01
36%
2.79
14%
6.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.96
0.64
Ionikos xG
2.01
50%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
6.90
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
25.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Ionikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.64 for Ionikos, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 15W 17D 27L from 59 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 28L across 59 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.05 PPG, Ionikos on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 11W 8D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 8W 5D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Ionikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Ionikos Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 15W 17D 27L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Ionikos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.41 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atromitos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Sep 2022, when Atromitos won Ionikos 1-4 Atromitos.
Atromitos's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
3
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Ionikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Ionikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 3, Ionikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Ionikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2023: Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 45%, Ionikos 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Atromitos and 38% for Ionikos.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 34% of games; Ionikos in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Ionikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Ionikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Atromitos's recent matches and 41% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Ionikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Atromitos's recent games and 38% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Ionikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Atromitos's recent matches and 76% of Ionikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Ionikos 2-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.32 xG and Ionikos 0.64 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Ionikos attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 50% | Draw 36% | Ionikos 14%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 37%, Ionikos 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Ionikos's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.05 PPG, Ionikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.