Lamia 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAS Giannina in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lamia 0W, PAS Giannina 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 43% versus PAS Giannina 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 43% | PAS Giannina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.13 xG and PAS Giannina 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.790 / defence 1.549 | PAS Giannina attack 0.966 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.997. Lamia's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 25% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 42%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | PAS Giannina 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 25% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamia 1.13 / PAS Giannina 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.790 / def 1.549 | PAS Giannina attack 0.966 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PAS Giannina xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Lamia 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Lamia vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAS Giannina part of?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 25% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamia and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 2 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.97x) against Lamia's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
25%
3.98
33%
3.02
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.63
1.49
PAS Giannina xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Lamia and 1.49 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 9W 20D 32L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 15W 21D 25L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Lamia against 1.08 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.70 PPG from 30 outings (4W 9D 17L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 10D 16L from 30 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 20D 32L in their last 61 games (0.77 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 15W 21D 25L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAS Giannina's away record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.70 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lamia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lamia
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 53%, PAS Giannina 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamia) and 33% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 43% of games; PAS Giannina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lamia's recent matches and 37% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamia's recent games and 33% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.13 xG and PAS Giannina 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.55 against PAS Giannina attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 25% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 42%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 43%, PAS Giannina 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.77 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.