Atromitos 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 October 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 0.70 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 55% versus Asteras Tripolis 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 29% | Asteras Tripolis 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.57 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.860 / defence 0.971 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.998 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.244. Data: 31 Atromitos games / 32 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 26%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Asteras Tripolis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Atromitos 1.57 / Asteras Tripolis 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.860 / def 0.971 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.998 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Asteras Tripolis xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Atromitos 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.86) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.12
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.20 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 13D 16L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 7W 16D 15L from 38 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.05 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 5D 12L from 18 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Asteras Tripolis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 9W 13D 16L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 7W 16D 15L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.56 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
0
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 44%, Asteras Tripolis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Atromitos and 39% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 28% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Atromitos's recent matches and 33% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Atromitos's recent games and 39% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.57 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 26%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 29%, Asteras Tripolis 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.05 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.