PAS Giannina 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as PAS Giannina take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against PAS Giannina's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 56% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 49% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.28 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.899 / defence 1.014 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.040 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.205. Data: 32 PAS Giannina games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAS Giannina 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG PAS Giannina 1.28 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.899 / def 1.014 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.040 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAS Giannina 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 33% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.92
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.56
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 15D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.10 PPG from 39 outings (24W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PAS Giannina's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 1.83 points per game from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.15 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 16L in their last 39 games (1.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 10D 5L in their last 39 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.28 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.83 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (PAS Giannina) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAS Giannina 0-3 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.28 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 33% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 49%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.