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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis and PAOK share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Asteras Tripolis and PAOK drew 3-3 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.28 xG and PAOK 1.42 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against PAOK attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 34% | Draw 26% | PAOK 40%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 47%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights