Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 0.50 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 51% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.84 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.915 / defence 1.080 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.093 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.193. Data: 34 Asteras Tripolis games / 34 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Asteras Tripolis 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.84 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.915 / def 1.080 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.093 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.92x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.09x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.78
30%
3.29
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.25
1.41
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
19.55
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.8 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.41 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 9D 19L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 24W 9D 8L from 41 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 5D 5L from 20 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.98 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 55%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Asteras Tripolis) and 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 35%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 30% of games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.84 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.41 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Asteras Tripolis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 51%, Olympiakos Piraeus 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Asteras Tripolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.