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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Asteras Tripolis (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Asteras Tripolis face OFI.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Asteras Tripolis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Asteras Tripolis hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for OFI, with 2 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with OFI winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Asteras Tripolis and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | OFI 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG and OFI 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.927 / defence 1.064 | OFI attack 1.033 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Asteras Tripolis games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 31% | OFI 30%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 50% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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