Asteras Tripolis 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 58%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Asteras Tripolis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Asteras Tripolis stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
OFI — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, OFI have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 0 for OFI and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Asteras Tripolis 2–0 OFI — a Asteras Tripolis win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 42% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 42% | OFI 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 2.19 xG and OFI 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.040 / defence 1.217 | OFI attack 0.738 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. OFI's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Asteras Tripolis's projected output up. OFI's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and OFI's last 52.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 23% | OFI 19%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.73 | Draw 4.28 | OFI 5.29. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Asteras Tripolis's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 60% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 23% | OFI 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 2.19 / OFI 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.040 / def 1.217 | OFI attack 0.738 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.22
OFI xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 58% chance of winning, OFI a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Asteras Tripolis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.04x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and OFI's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.28
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.41
1.22
OFI xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
2%
47.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.22 for OFI, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 15W 20D 29L from 64 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 23L across 64 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.02 PPG, OFI on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 10W 12D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 11D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 20D 29L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while OFI have gone 17W 24D 23L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or OFI away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.35 PPG; OFI away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 45%, OFI 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Asteras Tripolis) and 55% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 32% of games; OFI in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 45% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 55% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 74% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and OFI finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 2.19 xG and OFI 1.22 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against OFI attack 0.74 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 23% | OFI 19%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 42%, OFI 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.02 PPG, OFI 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.