Panetolikos 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 6 as Panetolikos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.50 PPG, Atromitos 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panetolikos, 2 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | Atromitos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.45 xG and Atromitos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.872 / defence 1.155 | Atromitos attack 0.814 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Panetolikos 1.45 / Atromitos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.872 / def 1.155 | Atromitos attack 0.814 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Atromitos xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 39% chance of winning, Atromitos a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Panetolikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.33
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.73
1.28
Atromitos xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.28 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 64 games, going 14W 18D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.12 PPG from 64 outings (16W 24D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 0.94 PPG, Atromitos on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 7W 8D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.74 points per game from 31 outings (4W 11D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 14W 18D 32L in their last 64 games (0.94 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 16W 24D 24L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.94 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Atromitos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 36%, Atromitos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panetolikos) and 45% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 45% of games; Atromitos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 61% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panetolikos's recent games and 45% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.45 xG and Atromitos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Atromitos attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, Atromitos 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Atromitos's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.94 PPG, Atromitos 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.