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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Larisa 3-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Larisa 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Larisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Larisa 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Larisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 0.65 PPG, Larisa 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights