Asteras Tripolis 3-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 37%, yet in-form Larisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Larisa meet at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Asteras Tripolis's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Larisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Larisa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 0 for Larisa and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–1 Larisa — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Larisa — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 46% versus Larisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 46% | Larisa 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Larisa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.828 / defence 1.181 | Larisa attack 0.721 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Larisa's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.70 | Draw 2.85 | Larisa 3.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Larisa (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Asteras Tripolis's last 10 home games and Larisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.08 / Larisa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.828 / def 1.181 | Larisa attack 0.721 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Larisa xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 37% chance of winning, Larisa a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Larisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.83) and Larisa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.72x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and Larisa's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Larisa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.91 for Larisa, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 26 games, going 3W 8D 15L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (4W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 0.88 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across their last 13 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 13 away games (2W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.85 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Larisa
Blended
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Larisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 games (0.65 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 11D 11L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Larisa away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 0.85 PPG; Larisa away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa, the earliest from September 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Larisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 54%, Larisa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 31% of games; Larisa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Larisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 38% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Larisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 69% of Larisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Larisa 3-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Larisa 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Larisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Larisa 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 0.65 PPG, Larisa 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.