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Asteras Tripolis and Larisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Asteras Tripolis and Larisa drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and Larisa 0.79 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Larisa outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Larisa attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 29% | Larisa 23%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 0%, Larisa 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Larisa arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Asteras Tripolis scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.