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Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Lamia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.46 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Lamia attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 27% | Lamia 17%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 53%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights