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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Asteras Tripolis 0-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.29 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.24 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights