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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.41 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 47% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 25%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Asteras Tripolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights