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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Volos NFC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 3-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Conference League Group - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG and Volos NFC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.70 / defence 0.91 against Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 24%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Volos NFC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Volos NFC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.47 PPG, Volos NFC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights