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Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.14 xG and PAOK 1.42 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against PAOK attack 1.38 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Draw 26% | PAOK 43%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

PAOK's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights