🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Panetolikos attack 0.74 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Panetolikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Panetolikos's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights