Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 3D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.70 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aris Thessalonikis lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Panathinaikos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Panathinaikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 xG and Panathinaikos 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.805 / defence 0.932 | Panathinaikos attack 1.064 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.264. Data: 32 Aris Thessalonikis games / 31 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 35%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Panathinaikos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Panathinaikos 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 / Panathinaikos 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.805 / def 0.932 | Panathinaikos attack 1.064 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Panathinaikos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 39% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 2 | Panathinaikos 3W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.06x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.79
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Panathinaikos xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.25 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 19W 8D 10L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 19W 10D 8L from 37 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.81 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.17 PPG from 18 outings (12W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 7W 5D 6L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.17 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panathinaikos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 61% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos finished level at 1-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 xG and Panathinaikos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Panathinaikos attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 35%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 35%, Panathinaikos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.76 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.