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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OFI cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.41 xG and OFI 0.86 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. OFI outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.75 / defence 0.78 against OFI attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 31% | OFI 21%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a OFI win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 32%, OFI 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.51 PPG, OFI 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights